Forecasts
Over the past few decades, meteorological and marine forecasting have made remarkable progress, generating heightened interest among stakeholders and decision-makers in operational coastal forecasting. This type of forecasting yields substantial benefits in numerous contexts, such as assessing coastal vulnerability, erosion, analyzing bathing water quality, and exploring the intricate relationship between marine and human ecosystems.
For meteorological and marine forecasting in Italy, a comprehensive numerical modeling chain, rooted in the COSMO meteorological model, operates at the national level. This modeling chain delivers predictions with high spatial resolution, extending over a few kilometers. It provides basin-scale insights through sub-regional models and supplies essential boundary conditions for local models with heightened resolution and spatial precision, developed over the years by regional facilities to cater to specific requirements.
Oceanographic modeling, encompassing sub-regional models such as ‘Adriac’ in the Adriatic Sea and ‘ROMS’ in the Tyrrhenian Sea, offers daily granularity concerning the evolution of sea level, currents, temperature, and salinity. These models, available at various spatial and temporal resolutions, require further enhancement and systematic integration at the national level.
To effectively evaluate impacts on the coastal region, sophisticated coastal morphodynamic models are accessible. These models enable the prediction of inundation, sediment transport, redistribution, as well as erosion of the strand and dune systems. Additionally, Oil-Spill models are employed to forecast the dispersion and transport of accidentally released pollutants, serving essential roles in search and rescue operations.
On the regional scale, (Mediterranean Sea) the Copernicus Marine Service systems are instrumental. They continually update their extensive forecast catalogs, encompassing seas worldwide, including the Mediterranean Sea.
From a national standpoint, the ItaliaMeteo Agency is actively working to enhance coordination, harness expertise, and optimize resources to establish an operational system for forecasting waves, currents, and sea levels across the entire Italian domain, offering both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts (based on ensemble modeling).
Sea state forecasts capture wave properties at specific locations and times. This information is typically presented in terms of significant height, direction of propagation, mean period, and peak period. These valuable insights are derived from advanced numerical forecasting models.
In the broader context of meteorological and marine forecasting, the field of oceanography delves into the biological, geological, chemical, and physical processes within the oceans.
Oceanographic forecasts, obtained through numerical marine forecasting models, provide daily and detailed information on sea level, currents, temperature, and salinity variations over time.